Price (Bt) 72.50
Target (Bt) 77.60
Set Index 540.22
1Q09 earnings of Bt170mn meet forecast
Hit by lower fruit production and selling prices
UVAN announced a 1Q09 net profit of Bt170mn (Bt1.81/share), down
41% yoy. Last year was the golden year for the palm oil business as both production and selling prices increased. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, net earnings jumped 174%. The strong earnings jump was due to higher palm production and palm oil prices rising by 28% qoq. Exported sales of hybrid oil palm seeds increased 270%. Sales of electricity generating biogas engines also helped widen gross margin to 26.8% from 24% last quarter. Sales fell 31% yoy to Bt847mn as the average selling prices of CPO and CPKO declined 33% and 48% yoy respectively.
Solid 2Q09 net profit on high season, new power sales
Domestic crude palm oil prices continued to increase to Bt29/kilo. Fresh fruit prices were about
Bt4.75 – Bt5.00/kilo. UVAN has also delivered three biogas power engines that should further increase 2Q09
revenue. We thus expect 2Q09 earnings growth from 1Q09. We are forecasting 2009 net profit of Bt832mn
(Bt8.85/share), down 42% yoy.
Maintain LONG-TERM BUY, FV of Bt77.60/share
We are reiterating our LONG-TERM BUY on UVAN based on its strong financial position without debt
financing. The share price also offers an attractive dividend yield of 8.5% and 7% upside to our target
price of Bt77.60/share.
Earnings summary
Year End Dec 31 2006 2007 2008 2009F 2010F
Sales (Btmn) 2,863 4,497 6,836 4,318 4,353
EBITDA (Btmn) 508 639 1,663 1,022 1,047
Normalised earnings (Btmn) 378 505 1,445 832 840
Earnings (Btmn) 378 505 1,445 832 840
EPS (Bt) 4.02 5.37 15.37 8.85 8.94
PER (x) 18 13.5 4.7 8.2 8.1
EV/EBITDA (x) 12.8 10.3 3.7 6.5 6.1
Free cash flow (Btmn) 385 258 1,574 510 886
CF/share (Bt) 5 4.5 19 9.5 11
BVPS (Bt) 13.7 15.1 21.4 18.8 21.5
P/BV (x) 5.3 4.8 3.4 3.9 3.4
DPS (Bt) 2.75 4 11.5 6.17 6.23
Dividend yield (%) 3.80% 5.50% 15.90% 8.50% 8.60%
Net debt/equity (X) cash cash cash cash cash
ROA (%) 28% 33% 75% 41% 46%
ROE (%) 32% 37% 84% 44% 44%
Gross margin (%) 20% 15% 26% 25% 25%
Source : Company reports and KELIVE Research estimates.
By Kim Eng Securities (Thailand) Company Limited on May 19, 2009
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